Syria peace talks open in Geneva with no ‘Plan B’ on table
By Hugh Naylor March 14 at 11:35 AM
GENEVA — After swiftly collapsing just over a month ago, negotiations to end the civil war in Syria resumed Monday amid a partial cease-fire that has reduced violence but still leaves room for Syrian forces and their allies to wage targeted offensives.
The U.N. envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura, praised what he described as greater international support for bringing an end to the conflict, including the “fragile” truce brokered by the United States and Russia that has largely held since taking effect more than two weeks ago.
“These talks are wanted by the international stakeholders,” he told journalists at the U.N. headquarters in Geneva.
But he warned of even greater violence should the talks fail, saying that “the only plan B available is the return to war, and to an even worse war than we had so far.”
The U.N. envoy met the Syrian government delegation for more than an hour after paying a visit to opposition representatives late Sunday evening.
The two sides are still bitterly at odds, and expectations of a breakthrough remain low because of divisions over what do with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a transition process.
The talks resumed a day before the fifth anniversary of the Syrian uprising, which began as a peaceful Arab Spring revolt but transformed into a brutal civil war that has killed more than 250,000 people, created a massive refugee crisis and fed the rise of extremists such as the Islamic State and Syria's al-Qaeda affiliate.
With government and rebel forces verging on exhaustion after more than four years of open warfare, their rival great power sponsors — Russia and the United States — appear to have taken greater interest in forging a diplomatic solution.
Moscow backs Assad and Washington supports his opposition, but they nevertheless brokered the shaky cease-fire that took hold on Feb. 27 and have cajoled their allies into returning to Geneva.
Under the pact, however, Syria and its backers have the ability to strike at groups not part of the deal. Opposition factions backed by the West and its allies claim they also have come under attack since the cease-fire took hold.
“This truce was negotiated between Russia and the U.S., not between the various Syrian actors,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and director of the University of Oklahoma’s Center for Middle East Studies. “Its success demonstrates how exhausted all sides are.”
Although Secretary of State John F. Kerry said violence has been reduced by 80 to 90 percent under the cease-fire, U.S. officials have grown increasingly concerned that most of the violations have been perpetrated by Syrian government forces and their Iranian and Hezbollah allies on the ground.
Militiamen from Iran and the Lebanese Shiite militant group have participated in pro-government ground attacks that have been backed by airstrikes from Russia, which intervened militarily in the conflict in late September.
Frustration over Russia’s inability or unwillingness to rein in Assad’s forces led Kerry on Sunday to publicly remind Russia and Iran that they “accepted responsibility for the forces that they control or influence. . . . So President Putin, who is invested in supporting Assad . . . should be somewhat concerned.”
“This is a moment of truth,” Kerry said during a visit to Paris, “a moment where all of us have agreed to be responsible.”
Statements on Saturday by Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem added to U.S. irritation. Moualem confirmed the government’s participation in the talks, but said any opposition attempt to discuss Assad’s future was a “red line” for Damascus. “The government delegation will reject any attempt to put this on the agenda,” he said at a news conference in the Syrian capital.
While the international agreement under which the negotiations are being held does not specifically mention Assad, it outlines the establishment of a transitional government “with full executive powers” to take control of Syria while a new constitution is being written and preparations are being made for elections. The opposition has repeatedly said its interpretation of that agreement is that there is no place for Assad in the transition.
The Obama administration, while maintaining that peace is impossible as long as Assad remains in office, has avoided saying the talks should be specifically about his future.
But Kerry seemed Sunday to move closer to the opposition position. “Assad sent his foreign minister out . . . to try and act as a spoiler, to take off the table something that President Putin and Iran had committed to” in signing the agreement, he said.
Kerry said he was in contact with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and that U.S. and Russian task force representatives were meeting this weekend in both Geneva and Amman, where the United States operates a center to monitor cease-fire violations.
Russia has significantly decreased its airstrikes against opposition fighters and civilians in recent weeks, according to administration officials, and has increased its strikes against the Islamic State. Opposition groups that signed up for the cease-fire have largely complied with it.
But Syrian government forces, in addition to continued
use of airdropped barrel bombs, have conducted ground operations against opposition-held areas around Damascus and the Mediterranean province of Latakia in an apparent effort to retake ground.
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