تحقيقات دافيد كاميرون في جماعة الإخوان المسلمين ربما يكون لها نتائج عكسية

David Cameron's Muslim Brotherhood inquiry could well backfire
Rosemary Hollis
The Guardian, Wednesday 2 April 2014
David Cameron will come to regret his call for an investigation of the Muslim Brotherhood. The move is opportunistic and set to backfire on him. The impetus reportedly came from British intelligence, not from the Foreign Office, where there is greater awareness of the dangers of alienating the rank and file of an Islamist movement hitherto identified as relatively moderate and nonviolent.
The choice of the British ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Sir John Jenkins, to head the investigation raises questions about the role of the Saudis in influencing Cameron's calculations. For the rulers of Saudi Arabia, the Muslim Brotherhood represents their most potent rival for influence among Sunni Muslims across the region. Even though Riyadh backs the forces seeking to oust the Syrian president, Bashar Assad, it does not want Brotherhood sympathisers to replace him.
Cameron himself used to be a champion of the Syrian opposition, before being obliged to recognise that the so-called moderate opposition forces in Syria are incapable of triumphing over both Assad and more extremist opposition forces. It will not sort out the Syrian tragedy to join the Saudis in demonising the Muslim Brotherhood.
It may, however, go a little way toward placating the Saudis, who have made no secret of their anger at their western allies for going soft on Assad over the chemical weapons issue and simultaneously engaging Iran, the biggest regional rival to the Saudis, in a dialogue about their nuclear programme.
As announced, the investigation of the Brotherhood will analyse Egyptian government claims that the movement was responsible for an attack on tourists travelling on a bus in Egypt in February. No doubt Egyptian intelligence will supply their British counterparts, including the head of MI6, Sir John Sawers, a former ambassador to Cairo, with their insights on the matter. And with our man in Riyadh to head it, the investigation will no doubt be well informed by Saudi sources too. Who will put the case for the Brotherhood is not clear.
The investigation is also charged with identifying the values and philosophy of the movement – not necessarily with a view to adding the Brotherhood to the list of terrorist organisations proscribed by the government, we are told – but to better understand "what we are dealing with". From whom will the inquiry hear on this matter? There are plenty of British citizens who could describe the beliefs and aspirations of the Muslim Brotherhood, but they will not want to implicate themselves.
The criteria by which an organisation can be proscribed, according to the Terrorism Act 2000, focus on involvement in acts of terrorism, but also consider "the nature and scale of an organisation's activities"; "the specific threat that it poses to the UK"; and "the need to support other members of the international community in the global fight against terrorism".
Between them the Saudis and Egyptians could no doubt supply a compelling case against the Brotherhood on all counts. However, the government would be most unwise to concede to their arguments without considering the broader picture.
The Brotherhood is a very substantial movement, with millions of followers not only in Egypt, where it was founded nearly a century ago, but across the Middle East and beyond. Its strength was manifest in its capacity to win political power, including the Egyptian presidency, following the fall of Hosni Mubarak.
For years the Foreign Office has run a number of initiatives to encourage political reform in Egypt, inclusive of recognising the full spectrum of public opinion. When the revolution happened in 2011, there was no British effort to defend Mubarak. On the contrary, British policy was to accommodate to the new order.
As it transpired the army not only allowed Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi to become president in Egypt but also orchestrated his removal. Now the gloves are off and the Brotherhood has been outlawed, its members imprisoned and many sentenced to death. In the circumstances it should be no surprise that some have sought refuge abroad, including in Britain.
If some of those exiles are plotting revenge or how to make a comeback in Egypt down the line, that should not be a surprise either. However, surely British anti-terrorism laws are sufficient to deal with any specific cases. And why instigate an inquiry into the values and philosophy of the movement writ large?
The prime minister has created a trap for himself. If his investigation finds grounds to proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood it will alienate millions who never espoused violence in the first place. If it concludes that the Brotherhood's values and philosophy are not a problem, the Saudis will no longer be appeased, and the whole exercise will look like a farce.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/02/david-cameron-muslim-brotherhood-inquiry-backfire