One More Middle East Conflict: What to Make of Donald Trump
By
BEN HUBBARD and
ANNE BARNARDNOV. 10, 2016
BEIRUT, Lebanon — Crossing from
Syria into
Lebanon on Tuesday night proved to be a parable for the diametrically opposed ways the world sees the
election of Donald J. Trump.
At the passport counter, a Syrian officer’s face lit up when he saw an American traveler.
“Congratulations on your new president!” he exclaimed, giving an energetic thumbs up. Mr. Trump, he said, would be “good for
Syria.”
He echoed many supporters of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, who pronounced themselves delighted with the president-elect, believing he would change course, abandon support for Mr. Assad’s opponents in the Syrian civil war and embrace Damascus and its ally, Moscow
In the Middle East, as elsewhere around the world, Mr. Trump’s surprise victory shocked many people. But a new occupant of the Oval Office could lead to a significant reordering of American engagement in a complex region. Saudi Arabia, for example, hopes Mr. Trump will take a hard line on Iran.
Egypt sees a man it can do business with who will not quibble about human rights.
As commander in chief, Mr. Trump will have to navigate many of the same problems that President Obama has struggled with, from the collapse of state structures to raging civil wars to jihadist groups that cause tremendous violence.
That chaos has given many in the region a certain respect for strongmen, and many Middle Eastern leaders now hope that as president, Mr. Trump will shift matters in their favor.
Some of Mr. Trump’s plans for the region appear to contradict one another, like proposing a safe zone for civilians in Syria while pledging to work with Russia — which has bombed Syrian civilians.
Yet he appears committed to two major policy shifts: working with Russia against the jihadists of the Islamic State and rolling back the nuclear deal with Iran.
Both moves would be significant departures from the policies of Mr. Obama, whose tenure was marked by rising tensions between the United States and some of its historical allies in the region, like Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. But it is unclear whether new initiatives would repair the damage.
Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi journalist, joked that after a meeting with Mr. Obama, someone in Riyadh had asked God for a change in the White House.
“And God answered his prayer, literally,” Mr. Khashoggi said.
Few knew what to expect from Mr. Trump, he added.
For Saudi Arabia, Mr. Trump has
suggested that it should pay for American security guarantees, but he could also choose to put business first and bolster economic cooperation, Mr. Khashoggi said.
“He has to make himself clear now that he is the president so that we will know how to deal with him,” he said.
In a region still affected by the aftermath of the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, many fear that Mr. Trump’s often belligerent language could clear the way for further military intervention or occupation. And his praise of the practice of waterboarding detainees recalled for many the abuses of Guantánamo.
Speaking at
a campaign rally last year about his plan to defeat the Islamic State, Mr. Trump, using an expletive, vowed to bomb the group. He then suggested he would have international oil companies rebuild oil infrastructure used by the jihadists, “and I’d ring it and I’d take the oil.”
Speaking at the United Nations on Wednesday, the Iraqi ambassador, Mohamed Ali Alhakim, said he hoped the campaign against terrorism would remain a priority for the new president-elect, although he did not know what exactly Mr. Trump would do.
“There is not yet a clear policy,” he said.
He brushed off Mr. Trump’s declaration that the United States should take Iraq’s oil, adding that the United States has more oil than Iraq.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/world/middleeast/middle-east-trump-obama-syria-iraq-egypt.html?ref=middleeast