Putin’s Syria Surprise
By THE EDITORIAL BOARDMARCH 15, 2016
Leave it to President
Vladimir Putin of
Russia to
abruptly declare victory in
Syria and decide to bring the “main part” of his troops home. The implications are unclear. The announcement could turn out to be a constructive move toward a more lasting peace settlement. It could also be a practical necessity, reflecting a desire not to get bogged down in the Syrian morass indefinitely. As the United States has found, it is easier to get into wars than to get out of them.
The official line, reported by state media, is that Mr. Putin decided the withdrawal was justified by the “overall completion” of Moscow’s military mission in Syria. “I consider the mission set for the Defense Ministry and the armed forces on the whole has been accomplished,” he
said at a meeting at the Kremlin. American officials were taken aback by the timing of the decision and were uncertain as to what it would mean for the size and scope of Russia’s military operation and whether it signals a halt in all Russian airstrikes.
Russia has operated a naval facility at Tartus off the Syrian coast since the days of the Soviet Union. That base, Mr. Putin said, will remain open. His order seemed to affect warplanes operating from a new air base in Latakia. Since September, planes from Latakia have been bombing rebels fighting to overthrow President
Bashar al-Assad and have tipped the balance in Syria’s five-year-old war in Mr. Assad’s favor, allowing him to reclaim territory lost to the rebels.
Russia’s intervention has also enabled Mr. Putin to show off its military might and forced the United States to treat it as an equal in securing stability in Syria.
One hopeful interpretation of Mr. Putin’s decision is that it reflected a growing weariness with protracted engagement. Senior officials in the Obama administration have argued that Moscow’s intervention could have the unintended consequence of drawing Russia into a quagmire and alienating Sunni Muslims across the region, a price Mr. Putin may not be willing or able to pay.
Mr. Assad’s hold on the country, which is also under attack by the Islamic State and other militants, is still shaky. Russia’s economy, battered by the slump in oil prices, is expected to shrink by 1 percent this year and faces long-term stagnation. Sanctions imposed by the European Union because of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine are also a drag.
Mr. Putin’s announcement coincided with the resumption in Geneva of United Nations-brokered peace talks, so the timing could be significant. In addition to ordering stepped-up diplomatic efforts, Mr. Putin may have been telling Mr. Assad that the time had come to drop his resistance to a peace settlement.
Should that have been Mr. Putin’s purpose, and should Mr. Assad be listening, there may yet be an end in sight to the catastrophic Syrian war, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions and created a
lost generation of children shaped by violence and fear.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/opinion/putins-syria-surprise.html?ref=opinion&_r=1