توقعوا حوار "الطرشان" مع سوريا

بقلم: باري روين – كاتب إسرائيلي

دايلي ستار - 29/5/2007

يجب أن يعرف السوريون أن قادتهم عبارة عن مجموعة من الفاشلين و ليس باستطاعتهم أن يحققوا أي نوع من أنواع المجد المعنوي و لا حتى المكاسب المادية. إن هذا النظام يجب أن يُحتوى حتى يتراجع عن مواقفه. قد تكون هذه العملية طويلة المدى ولكنها في النهاية أقل البدائل كلفة.

Expect a dialogue of the deaf with Syria

By Barry Rubin

Commentary by

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Recently, there have been calls in the United States to "talk" to Syria . However, the problem is not so much talking to Syria , in a manner equivalent to having a cup of coffee with someone of the opposite gender. The real issue is that the West is looking for a long-term meaningful relationship with the possibility of compatibility or even marriage. But Syria is already married to Iran , a sugar daddy too well-heeled to give up. Besides, it wouldn't be long before Syrian President Bashar Assad would ask to borrow the keys to Lebanon , dent the car, and refuse to return it.

Certainly, he might swear that it is all over between him and Hamas or Hizbullah, but soon you'd be finding that's not the case. He would soon expect the US to wash his dirty laundry for him. Syria 's regime has gotten plenty of changes from the West and each time the result is the same: a broken heart and the need to get a restraining order.

The Syrian regime and its apologists, as well well-intentioned but poorly informed people, advocate concessions to get talks started and keep them going to prove Western good intentions. How, they say, could Syria negotiate while under investigation for the former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri's, murder? How could Syria be asked to cease provoking instability in Lebanon unless it be given power there? If Syria sponsors terrorist attacks, subverts Lebanon , represses dissidents, or promotes violence in Iraq , nothing in a talking process would punish Damascus in the hope of having the matter solved. In the meantime, Syria would have a free hand to do what it pleases.

What can negotiators offer Syria that it wants without further destabilizing the region? Should they force Lebanon once again to become a Syrian colony? Implant a government that Syria likes in Iraq ? Give the regime money so it can better pursue its ambitions? Hand over all the Golan Heights plus a slice of Israeli territory without Syria making fulland permanent peace with Israel - an outcome ensuring more war?

Consider, for example, this fully frank dialogue with Syria over Iraq 's future:

American negotiator: "So, President Bashar, what kind of Iraq would you like?"

Bashar: "An Iraq that would be anti-American, dominated by Iran, supporting Hizbullah and Hamas, ready to fight the Arab-Israeli conflict forever, dominated by the Sunni minority holding down the Shiite-Kurdish majority or an Islamist state, and not too democratic so as to avoid giving my own people a bad example."

American negotiator: "I'm sure we can work something out!"

Similarly, the regime will not give up its enmity against an independent Lebanon , or Israel , under any circumstances because it needs to control the former and fight the latter in order to win the struggle to retain popular support at home. Thus, the issues on which it has grievances cannot be resolved because its own actions and inflexibly maximalist demands are the very factors blocking a solution.

Syria has been brilliant at creating and maintaining such Catch-22 situations, where the only way to "solve" a problem is to buy Syrian "cooperation" with deals that would make things worse. Syria has acted as the arsonist who sets the fire, then has played the role of fireman who would put it out only on condition that the burning property be given to it. This was how Syria fomented terrorism in Lebanon against Western peacekeeping forces in the early 1980s, driving them out and then offering to stabilize Lebanon by controlling it completely. The same approach was applied to the Palestinians, in post-Baath Iraq , and in Lebanon again.

Lebanon was indeed the masterpiece of this political genre. Thus, Syrian Minister of Information Mohsen Bilal explained, "How can we be asked to disarm Hizbullah [since] we're out of Lebanon ?" But what if Syria was allowed to return to Lebanon in force, would it then clamp down on Hizballah? Well, on another occasion, Bilal was asked: "Will you be using your influence to persuade Hizbullah to disarm, or not?" His response: "Why on earth should we?" In fact, Hizballah is the main element in Syria 's plan to recapture Lebanon entirely. If the West wants a stable Lebanon , or to avoid more Lebanon-Israel wars, it has to confront Syria , not make a deal with it.

What the West needs to deal with Syria is a properly realistic assessment based on the facts about Assad, the regime, and the country. Syria is a weak and fragile entity, dependent largely on oil income and European commerce. The regime has flourished to the degree it has from enjoying a free ride - a lack of pressure except for American economic sanctions.

There is a proper, traditional "realistic" way to handle such problems. It is not by propitiating aggressors and begging them to make a deal on their terms but by pressuring and deterring them. To do so requires credibility and patience, a demonstration that the West will not cave in or be worn down to surrender. In Syria 's case, it must be denied assets, isolated, and its endeavors frustrated. This requires using everything from trade measures to counter-alliances, serious criticism, and other types of operations.

Likewise, Syrians must be shown that their leaders are a failure and can offer neither lasting glory nor material gains. The regime must be contained until it retreats. This can be a long process but it is ultimately a less costly one than the alternatives.

Barry Rubin is author of  the recently published "The Truth About Syria " (Palgrave-Macmillan). This is an edited extract from his book.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=5&article_id=82593

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نشرنا لهذه المقالات لا يعني أنها تعبر عن وجهة نظر المركز كلياً أو جزئياً

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من حق الزائر الكريم أن ينقل وأن ينشر كل ما يعجبه من موقعنا . معزواً إلينا ، أو غير معزو .ـ