عيون
تركيا على الهلال الشيعي (إنكليزي)
بقلم:
عمر تاسبينار
نيوزويك
-
طبعة 12/2/2007
Turkey
Eyes the
Shia
Crescent
Iran clearly seeks to lure Turkey away from its traditional moorings to the
West, and the Kurds may be just the wedge it needs.
By Omer Taspinar
Newsweek International
Feb. 12, 2007
issue - If you were a mullah in
Tehran
facing a new western "coalition of the willing," there's one
country you would try to get on your side: next-door
NATO neighbor,
Turkey
. And lately, the Iranians have been doing this quite
well. The reason:
Ankara
and
Tehran
increasingly share a cause that unites them: Kurdish
guerrillas operating in northern
Iraq
, and
America
's failure to do anything about them.
It would be premature to speak of any entente. Yet
Iran
clearly seeks to lure
Turkey
away from its traditional moorings to the West, and the
Kurds may be just the wedge they need. During visits to
Ankara
in recent months, Iranian officials and other state
representatives—including Ali Larijani, head of the
supreme National Security Council—have gone out of
their way to stress the troubles created for both
nations by the PKK terrorist movement. Despite myriad
promises,
U.S.
troops in the region do nothing to prevent cross-border
raids. Suggesting that Turkey should join with Iran and
Syria to establish a tripartite platform of security
cooperation against the Kurdish separatists, Larijani
and others impressed upon their counterparts the
advantages of a large-scale Turkish military incursion
to clean out the guerillas—possibly in coordination
with Iranian forces, according to Turkish and Iranian
news reports.
Nothing so dramatic appears to be imminent. Yet clearly, the prospects of a
Turkish intervention are growing. It is certain to be an
issue when Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul and
military Chief of Staff Gen. Yasar Buyukanit visit
Washington
over the next week. And, just as clearly,
Tehran
has every incentive to stir up trouble. An intervention in northern
Iraq
would all but end
Turkey
's already troubled European journey and spark a
monumental crisis with the
United States
. Estranged from
Brussels
and
Washington
,
Turkey
would see less benefit in toeing the Western line against
Iran
. To be sure, a Sunni Turkey would have some problems with
its historic Shia rival's acquiring nuclear weapons. Yet
that still-hypothetical threat is considered modest next
to the reality of Kurdish separatism. On this score, at
least, Turks do not see
America
as being on their side.
Iran
, however, is.
Ten days ago, the Turkish Parliament met in a closed session under the
strictest rules of secrecy. The agenda: northern
Iraq
and Turkish options. The country's military spent most of
the last 20 years fighting a bloody war against the PKK,
causing 40,000 deaths and costing close to $150 billion.
The guerillas have since regrouped in northern
Iraq
and, between 2004 and the summer of 2006, launched a new
terrorist campaign against
Turkey
. Most Turks believe that the current ceasefire is merely tactical and will
last only until spring.
As
Ankara
sees it, the PKK is only part of a bigger problem.
Turkey
's longstanding fear that independence-minded Kurdish
nationalists in
Iraq
would set a dangerous precedent for Kurds in
Turkey
is now being borne out. Emboldened by their partnership
with
Washington
, Iraqi Kurds have embarked on an ambitious nationalist
journey with a clear destination: an independent state
with the oil-rich city of
Kirkuk
as its capital. This Kurdish dream is a Turkish
nightmare.
The fact that the closed session of the Turkish Parliament focused on
Kirkuk
, where many ethnic Turkmens live, is not a good sign. With a local
referendum on the city's status scheduled for late 2007
and a critical census coming in April, events could
quickly turn volatile. Iranian forces, grouped along the
Kurdistan
border, have shelled a PKK offshoot in
Iraq
's
Kandil
Mountains
, and turned terrorists caught there over to
Ankara
. According to various reports, the Iranians have proposed a coordinated
military campaign—an escalation of hugely
unpredictable consequence.
It is no coincidence that Gul and Buyukanit are going to
Washington
. The meetings should put an end to the Bush administration's happy talk
about the stability of Iraqi Kurdistan. Unless
U.S.
forces act decisively against the PKK, the Turks will
warn,
Ankara
will take matters into its own hands. This is an election
year in
Turkey
, and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has every incentive to demonstrate
his nationalist credentials against political rivals,
many favoring military intervention. All this will
inevitably push
Turkey
toward
Iran
—and may even end up creating an unprecedented
Sunni-Shia axis of frustration against
America
.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16959214/site/newsweek/
 
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