فوضى العالم الجديد

بقلم: دومينيك مويسي

الجارديان - 26/6/2007

إن الانخفاض النسبي لقوة الأمريكية العالمية والتزايد المضطرد للقوة الروسية والصينية قد أدى إلى تحول في النظام الدولي

The new world disorder

The relative decline of America 's global power and the increasing power of Russia and China has transformed the international system

Dominique Moisi

Can Kosovo achieve independence without the tacit consent of Russia, and can there be a humanitarian and political solution to the tragedy in Darfur without the active goodwill of China? The two crises have nothing in common, but their resolution will depend on whether these two permanent members of the UN security council use their veto power.

Comparing the respective abilities of Russia and China to block key international initiatives makes no sense in itself, but it does constitute a useful tool for understanding the transformation of the international system that is now underway as a consequence of the relative decline of America's global power. But the deepening Middle East chaos poses both opportunities and risks for Russia and China , which may force them to define the roles they want to play and the images they want to project in the world.

Superficially, Russia and China give the impression that they are pursuing the same path when they both proclaim with pride that they are "back" on the world stage. But this boast means different things for each country.

For China , a deeply self-confident country, to be "back" simply means regaining the country's historical centrality in the world after an absence of more than two centuries. After all, at the end of the 18th century, China became the world's first producer of manufactured goods, and it perceives itself as a centre of civilization unequalled by any other in Asia , if not the world.

China 's renewed self-confidence is based on its remarkable economic prowess, which is derived not from natural resources, but from productivity and creativity. Whatever huge political, social, and economic tensions may exist, there is a "feel good" factor in China , a sense of progress, with the 2008 Olympics in Beijing figuring as the symbolic moment that will proclaim to the world the scale of the country's achievements.

Above all, with the exception of the Taiwan issue, China is a satisfied status quo power when it comes to the evolution of the international system - a patient actor that finds it perfectly legitimate to behave and to be seen as the world's number two power.

By contrast, Russians remain insecure about their status in the world. Russia 's explosive "revisionist" behaviour on the eve of the recent G8 summit is an indication of the Kremlin's "unsatisfied" nature. Because they know they are less potent, particularly in demographic and economic terms, Russians feel they have to do "more." For them, to say " Russia is back" means that the humiliating Yeltsin years are over, and that they now must be treated as equals, particularly by the United States .

That claim is not necessarily supported by reality. Unlike the Chinese, the Russians do not create economic wealth, but merely exploit their energy and mineral resources.

Moreover, unlike the Chinese, they have not always been confident of their position in the world. Torn between Europe and Asia in cultural and political terms, victimised by a dark, narcissistic instinct that pervades their reading of their past and their visions of the future, it should surprise no one that Russia is now behaving like a "revisionist" power. Less than 20 years ago, the Czech Republic and Poland were part of their sphere of influence, so Russians understandably cannot accept the US unilaterally implanting its security system there.

But the differences between Russia and China today may prove to be less significant tomorrow if the deterioration in the Middle East imposes a sense of collective responsibility on all five permanent members of the UN security council. It is one thing for Russia and China to exploit America 's troubles from Gaza to Kabul ; but it is another if the situation deteriorates to the point of general destabilisation in the region.

Indeed, the Middle East's deepening problems may impose a sense of restraint in Russia and China by forcing them to calculate not in terms of their global "nuisance value" vis-a -vis the west, but in terms of their ability to make a positive, stabilising contribution to world order.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/dominique_moisi/2007/06/the_new_world_disorder.html

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من حق الزائر الكريم أن ينقل وأن ينشر كل ما يعجبه من موقعنا . معزواً إلينا ، أو غير معزو .ـ