السؤال الكبير: من هم "الحرس الثوري الإيراني"

ومن الذي يسيطر عليهم؟

بقلم: أنغوس ماكدوال

صحيفة الانديبندنت - 27/3/2007

The Big Question: What is the Iranian Revolutionary

 Guard and who controls them?

By Angus McDowall in Tehran

Published:  27 March 2007

Why ask this now?

When two British boats with 15 Royal Navy personnel were seized by Iran on Friday, all eyes turned to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. The corps' naval force carried out the operation, which Britain says happened in Iraqi territorial waters, and its commanders hold the key to the crisis.

Representing a power block in Tehran 's complex political scene, the guards are at the sharp end of all the recent confrontations with the West. They are deeply involved in its nuclear and ballistics programme and are accused of "interference" in Iraq and Lebanon .

There is a precedent, too. When British servicemen were captured in the summer of 2004, it was widely interpreted as an exercise in muscle-flexing by the guards, who wanted to show Britain and America that their presence in Iraq was unwelcome. Some analysts also believed they wanted to force more pragmatic Iranian strategists into a harder line against the West.

Who are the guards?

Known in Persian as the Pasdaran, the guards emerged from the tumult of Iran 's 1979 revolution. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's followers were unwilling to trust the police or the army to maintain revolutionary discipline, so formed the guards as a nationwide militia. They patrolled the streets, enforcing strict Islamic mores and attacking supporters of opposing ideological factions.

When Iraq invaded in September 1980 the untrained and poorly armed guards joined the regular army on the front line. Over the next eight years they evolved into a disciplined military force that extolled martyrdom and battled the better-equipped Iraqi soldiers for God, Khomeini and country. Since the war ended in 1988, the guards have become Iran 's crack troops.

Senior commanders are still mostly seen as ideological hawks. When students demonstrated in 1999, top guardsmen signed a letter threatening a coup if the reformist president Mohammed Khatami failed to rein them in. But there are signs the rank and file are less politically hardline, with some reports suggesting the majority of them actually voted for Mr Khatami.

How strong are they?

The guards number up to 150,000 and are armed with the best weapons the Islamic republic can buy. By comparison, the conventional army has 300,000 troops but is ill-paid and less well-equipped. The guards have a naval force of 20,000 men designed to undertake amphibious guerrilla operations. They are also believed to operate Iran 's ballistic missile programme and to be developing other weapons systems.

A large militia, known as the Basij, is directed by the revolutionary guards. With several million recruits of all ages and both sexes, it was known in the war for its ideological fervour and blind courage. Today it organises pro-regime demonstrations and violently breaks up anti-government protests. Membership can help ease applications for government jobs and places at university.

Iran 's special forces, the Qods Brigade, are under the guards' control and have close ties to the intelligence services. The brigade has been inconclusively linked to terrorism and assassinations outside Iran .

Who do they answer to?

In Iran 's unique political system, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sits above the elected government, run by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and controls large parts of the state. Unlike the conventional forces, the revolutionary guards answer to his office. The supreme leader appoints top guardsmen and they in turn profess themselves his "devotees".

During the Iran-Iraq war, when Khamenei was president, he worked closely with the guards and developed personal relationships with its top leaders. But it has never been clear how close an interest he takes in tactical decisions. It is also uncertain how far commanders who disagree with his policies are able to push their own ideas or take unsanctioned, independent action.

The top Pasdaran commander, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, is reported to have strongly criticised talks with Europe on the nuclear issue ­ talks that were endorsed by the supreme leader himself. As a protégé of Ayatollah Khomeini, the father of the revolution, Mr Safavi is unlikely to be overawed by his successor Ayatollah Khamenei.

Is their importance growing?

Since the revolution, Iran 's military has steered clear of power games. But over the past three years, some analysts have speculated that the revolutionary guards are trying to move into politics. Many of the conservatives who won seats in a controversial election to the Majlis, or parliament, in 2004 were old members of the Pasdaran.

In presidential elections the following year, three candidates had close connections to the guards, including the mayor of Tehran , Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It has never been clear what rank the president held, but there are rumours he was involved in special forces operations.

Since taking office, political rivals have accused him of militarising the government. Certainly, many of his cabinet appointees come from the guards and he has awarded enormous contracts ­ worth billions of pounds ­ to engineering companies run by them.

What have they got against Britain ?

As the confrontation between Iran and the West has increased, it is the guards who have felt the heat. Some of the Iranians captured by American forces in Arbil in northern Iraq in January were corps members. The raid is reported to have greatly angered guardsmen, who hold Britain , as America 's partner in the Iraq occupation, partly responsible.

Accusations of interference in Iraq and Lebanon have also been directed at the guards. Statements from top commanders suggest they see such charges as hypocritical, lambasting Britain and America for occupying neighbouring countries and making threatening noises about attacking Iran .

And with the nuclear crisis growing worse, the guards have come under sanction. Under a UN resolution co-sponsored by Britain and agreed on Saturday, revolutionary guards leaders, including Mr Safavi, will have their assets frozen.

What's happening to the servicemen now?

British diplomats have been told the servicemen are in good health and are being treated well. Iran has said it might charge them with entering Iranian waters illegally ­ something Britain denies they did. But it has not said what this might involve. In 2004, the captured servicemen were shown blindfold on Iranian television. Britain has told Iran that if that happens again, it would be seen as a serious escalation.

The Iranians have so far denied access to the servicemen and will not even confirm a report on Saturday that they had been transferred to Tehran . But whether they are in the capital or remain near the coast, the likelihood is they are still being held by the revolutionary guards.

Will the British servicemen be released soon?

Yes...

* Iranian media have played down the incident, creating some room to back off

* The Iraqi government has said that the boats were in their waters, not in Iran 's

* Iranian pragmatists have become more important in recent months and might counsel a swift solution

No...

* Top officials have said the servicemen could be charged ­ which might take weeks

* Revolutionary Guards are angry at what they see as recent American escalation of involvement in Iraq

* Some factions might see the servicemen as bargaining chips for other disputes

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2396032.ece

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نشرنا لهذه المقالات لا يعني أنها تعبر عن وجهة نظر المركز كلياً أو جزئياً

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من حق الزائر الكريم أن ينقل وأن ينشر كل ما يعجبه من موقعنا . معزواً إلينا ، أو غير معزو .ـ