The battlefield in Syria just became more complicated
Aug 24th 2016 | Middle East and Africa
AS IF the war in Syria did not have enough combatants, yet another country has entered the fray. On August 24th Turkey sent tanks, warplanes and special-operations soldiers over the border, driving Islamic State (IS) out of Jarablus, an important supply node for the jihadists.
Turkey’s mission has the backing of America, which is leading an anti-IS coalition. But it is already raising concerns inside Syria, where a five-year-old civil war has killed perhaps 500,000 people. Lately the fighting has become more chaotic. Alliances are shifting between the country’s myriad fighting groups, and their foreign backers. Peace, already a dim prospect, now seems even further off.
The situation in Hasakah, in the north-east, is indicative of the changing landscape. Until recently, the Syrian army of Bashar al-Assad, the country’s blood-spattered president, had mostly steered clear of Kurdish militias—and, at times, seemed to work with them—in order to confront Sunni Arab rebels. The Kurds, for their part, have focused their fire on IS and tried to consolidate their self-declared semi-autonomous region, called Rojava, in the north. But in Hasakah the government and the Kurds recently came to blows.
That fighting appears tied to warmer relations between Russia and Iran (which have long backed Mr Assad) and Turkey (which has not). Tension between Russia and Turkey reached a peak in November 2015 when Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian jet that violated Turkish airspace. But a recent detente between the two, coupled with Turkish concerns over Kurdish power and IS terrorism, have changed the dynamic. BinaliYildirim, Turkey’s prime minister, now says that Mr Assad might play a “transitional” role in Syria (rather than being forced out as soon as possible).
In turn, the Syrian government has expressed unease with Kurdish aspirations to carve out land. The Syrian army echoes Turkish statements linking the main Kurdish force in Syria, known as the Democratic Union Party (PYD), with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a long insurgency against Turkey. Little is now made of the Syrian government’s role in establishing the PKK, the founder of which, Abdullah Ocalan, left northern Syria out of his plan for a Greater Kurdistan to satisfy his Syrian patrons.
America has tried to stick to the narrow mission of defeating IS. But it risks being drawn into the wider conflict. Air strikes by Syrian planes around Hasakah on August 18th came close to American soldiers supporting Kurds in their fight against IS. America sent in its own jets, which arrived as the Syrian bombers were leaving. Now it is patrolling the skies over the city, where a ceasefire is in place. “The Syrian regime would be well-advised not to do things that place [anti-IS coalition forces] at risk,” said Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman.
America’s support for the Kurds in Syria has strained its relationship with Turkey. Unfounded Turkish suspicions that America was involved in a coup attempt against President RecepTayyipErdogan in July have increased the distrust. “Turkey has determined that America is not in a position to guarantee its interests [in Syria],” says Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank. New evidence came earlier this month, when the town of Manbij, once an important hub for IS, was liberated. America had assured Turkey that Arab fighters would lead the way into the city, but the PYD was in the vanguard. Now the Kurds refuse to leave.
The jihadists retreated north and west, towards Jarablus and al-Bab. Now the Kurds have set their sights on al-Bab, which would allow them to link up the eastern and western portions of Rojava (see map). But some had also hoped to capture Jarablus, where the Turks now appear intent on installing thousands of non-Kurdish Syrian rebels. Many Kurds think the Turkish mission is really aimed at blocking them from gaining a contiguous piece of territory along the Syrian frontier.
There is now a risk that the Turkish offensive will meet Kurdish resistance, pitting an American ally against an American proxy. Turkey’s minister of foreign affairs, MevlutCavusoglu, has warned the Kurds to cross east of the Euphrates river. “America gave its word they would do so,” he said. “Otherwise we as Turkey will do what is needed.” At a press conference in Ankara, America’s vice-president, Joe Biden, warned that the PYD risked losing American support if it did not comply with the Turkish demand.
According to some Turkish reports, Kurdish forces have begun to move, but if so, they aren’t going quietly. “Turkey has much to lose in the Syrian swamp,” said Saleh Moslem, a co-leader of the PYD, on Twitter. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces says it is “prepared to defend the country against any plans for a direct or indirect occupation”.
Turkey’s machinations have also led to fears in Aleppo, where earlier this month rebels broke a government siege. Some of them now worry that Turkey, in deference to Mr Assad’s foreign backers, will cut its support. “We need these supply routes [to Turkey] to stay open. Otherwise things will get even worse for civilians in the city,” says a local activist. Fierce fighting has left much of eastern Aleppo cut off from food, water and medicine. Efforts to reach a ceasefire deal have come to nought. Stephen O’Brien, the top aid official at the UN, has called the crisis the “apex of horror”.
Such suffering and a new UN report that will probably document Mr Assad’s continued use of chemical weapons, have some hoping America will intervene more forcefully to protect civilians and punish the regime. But that might benefit rebel outfits such as Jabhat Fatah al-sham, which only recently shed its affiliation with al-Qaeda (and changed its name from Nusra Front).
Russia, meanwhile, is establishing a more durable presence in the region, by making its air base in Latakia permanent and working closely with Iran. The Middle East has become “the platform for Russia’s ambitions as a 21st century great power”, says Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, a think-tank. But it has also been stung by shifty allies. Soon after Russia boasted on August 16th that it had launched bombers bound for Syria from Iranian territory, officials in Tehran halted the flights. HosseinDehghan, Iran’s defence minister, chided Russia for “showing off”.
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21705658-turkish-forces-pour-over-syrian-border-battlefield-syria-just-became