As Syria fighting escalates, 5 bad outcomes loom
Oren Dorell, USA TODAY 3:16 p.m. EDT April 26, 2016
Two months after a cease-fire agreement to halt the Syrian civil war, increased fighting threatens to kill any hopes for a peaceful resolution of the five-year struggle.
The latest escalation occurred Tuesday when Syrian jets conducted about 40 airstrikes in rebel-controlled areas near the northern city of Aleppo, killing 10 people, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The airstrikes came a day after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned Syrian opposition forces to abandon positions shared with terrorists or face annihilation. Russian and Syrian forces mustered near the northern city of Aleppo, the last major stronghold of the U.S.-supported opposition.
Representatives of the U.S.-supported opposition abandoned peace talks in Geneva on Friday, citing ongoing attacks on their forces.
A resumption of fighting is likely to produce bad consequences for Syria, its neighbors and U.S. allies in Europe. Here are five ugly outcomes.
Major attack looms
A sizable attack by combined Russian, Syrian and Iranian forces on opposition rebels in Aleppo, a city that's still home to thousands of civilians. The United States expressed concerns last week about the massing of Syrian and Russian troops and equipment outside Aleppo.
Uptick in radical Islamist recruitment
Ongoing refugee flows out of Syria, increasing pressure on U.S. allies in Jordan, Turkey and Europe. Such chaos creates good conditions for radical Islamist recruitment, said Syria analyst Chris Harmer at the Institute for the Study of War. The five-year civil war has killed more than 270,000 people and displaced more than half the country's pre-war population of 22 million people.
Decrease in moderate rebel groups
A dwindling of the moderate rebel groups in Syria, as fleeing refugees represent their greatest source of support in the country. Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city before the war, is the last big-city stronghold remaining under moderate opposition control. Other major cities are either controlled by the Syrian government led by President Bashar Assad, al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate known as the Nusra Front, or the Islamic State. Rebel fighters in Aleppo are already intermingled with Nusra fighters and resisting U.S. encouragement to separate, U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby said. "It's difficult to implement," he said.
ISIL holding territory
Despite continued U.S. pledges and actions to degrade the Islamic State, the group will continue to fight and hold territory where it can plan attacks elsewhere. President Obama this week announced that he is sending an
additional 250 special forces to help local militias fighting the Islamic State, also known as ISIL and ISIS. But the U.S. military said a Syrian Arab coalition it has organized to fight the Islamic State and attack its headquarters in Raqqa is not ready for that mission."Everyone wants to see ISIS out of Raqqa but it’s not going to happen," Syria analyst Harmer said. "Who's going to get there?"
Increased fighting between Syria's Kurds and Turkey
If Syrian government troops move on Aleppo, Syria's independence-minded Kurds are likely to seek more territory along the border with NATO-ally Turkey. Kurdish militia made such a move in February when Russian airstrikes hit Arab militia near Aleppo. Turkey, which considers the main Kurdish militia terrorists, launched artillery strikes of its own against the Kurds.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/04/26/syria-fighting-partial-ceasefire-civil-war/83358188/