Syria’s Partial Cease-Fire Shows Signs of Crumbling
By ANNE BARNARDAPRIL 12, 2016
BEIRUT, Lebanon — A fragile and
partial cease-fire in Syria is coming under new strains, with ground clashes and airstrikes intensifying as the government promises a new offensive and prepares to hold controversial parliamentary elections on Wednesday.
France, one of the most outspoken international opponents of
Syria’s president,
Bashar al-Assad, and Iran, his closest ally, both issued warnings that the partial cease-fire, which has lasted far longer than any other and has reduced the daily death toll significantly since Feb. 27, faced the threat of collapse.
A day before the next round of peace talks is set to start, France, along with opposition negotiators, blamed new government attacks in the northern province of Aleppo and the eastern suburbs of the capital, Damascus, for endangering the agreement, while Iran blamed “armed groups” fighting the government. Officials in the United States, too, said they were very concerned about the rise in violence.
The expressions of worry mounted as the special envoy for the
United Nations,
Staffan de Mistura, traveled to Tehran as part of a regional tour before the talks, which are set to resume in Geneva on Wednesday. After meeting with Iranian officials, he said he had emphasized the need to maintain the partial truce, known as a cessation of hostilities.
But at the same time, the number of violent deaths was increasing. In Talbiseh, an insurgent-held town in Homs Province, a Russian helicopter crashed, killing two pilots, a day after aerial attacks by the government and its allies resumed there at their most intense since the cessation of hostilities. As many as nine people were killed in the bombings, according to local anti-government activists. Residents posted images online of injured children, including an infant whose skull was crushed.
If the truce crumbles, it would take away a rare measure of relief for Syrian civilians in a war that has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced half the country’s population.
But even amid its qualified successes, the partial truce has highlighted the extreme difficulties facing any attempts to make peace between the opposing forces, which remain philosophically as divided as ever. Mr. Assad and his allies insist he can remain in power, while their opponents say there can be no deal with him still in office.
The Geneva talks are aimed at establishing a path toward a political transition, and an agreement last year in Vienna among the international backers of many of the combatants set out an ambitious timetable toward new presidential elections.
The parliamentary elections planned for Wednesday are not part of that timetable, but the Syrian government insisted on holding them in line with the normal electoral schedule. The opposition calls them illegitimate in a country where dissent has been crushed with violence and large areas remain outside government control.
The truce never included the Islamic State or the Nusra Front, nor has it completely stopped indiscriminate attacks on civilians by any side, as the recent violence showed.
“A decrease in casualty numbers brought a much-needed respite for Syrians, but many civilians are still dying in unlawful attacks,” Nadim Houry, the deputy Middle East director of
Human Rights Watch, said in a statement.
The group warned that both sides had committed attacks on civilians that threatened the cease-fire, citing rebel shelling of mainly Kurdish neighborhoods in the divided city of Aleppo, and government attacks east of Damascus.
In recent days, government warplanes have intensified airstrikes on rebel-held parts of Aleppo, as government officials declare they are launching a new offensive, with Russian air support, to take the areas.
Government and allied forces have also been trying to advance south of Aleppo on the highway to Damascus.
Rebels have waged their own battles against the Islamic State north of Aleppo, taking advantage of the respite from government attacks to battle the extremists, but a town they seized near the Turkish border was retaken by the Islamic State.
Even the increased access to humanitarian aid that was to have been a hallmark of the partial cease-fire has proved challenging. While there have been some successes, like a recent airdrop of food to the eastern city of Deir al-Zour, surrounded by Islamic State fighters, many areas besieged by the government have yet to receive any aid.
And while Mr. de Mistura promised that the new round of talks would lead to “very concrete” measures toward transition, they were set to begin, like previous rounds, with baby steps. They will be proximity talks, meaning the two sides will not sit down together at the same time in the same room, but will meet separately with Mr. de Mistura. The government delegation is not even scheduled to arrive until Friday.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/13/world/middleeast/syria-cease-fire-assad-civil-war-us-un.html?_r=1